Interpretation
Low Volatility of Golden Lion Garden Property Price
Golden Lion Garden price index has a much smaller variance than Hong Kong average over the observed period of time, indicating that properties price here is less volatile than over market. This implies a lower risk in investing money on properties in Golden Lion Garden than other properties in Hong Kong, but also a lower expected return in the long run. It may reflect the possibility that property owners in Golden Lion Garden do not perceive it as an investment tool.
Notable Trend
Peak in 1997
Since 1991, the price index of Golden Lion Garden has been increasing and has first reached peak in Sept 1997, which is in line with the overall Hong Kong housing marking. This was mainly caused by strong regional economic growth at that period of time and an increasing demand for residential properties due to strong income growth and low unemployment rate.
Recession Period from 1998-2003
In 1997, Asian financial crisis has arrived at Hong Kong and has caused a sudden collapse in property price and driven to thousands of property owners into negative equity. Followed by the 85,000 units housing target launched by Tung Chee-hwa, the slump was prolonged. This was also reflected in the price index of Golden Lion Garden, where the index has dropped about 27% from Sept 1997 to Sept 1998, even though it was much less severe than the 50% drop in overall Hong Kong housing market. Since then the price index has remained fairly static for 5 years.
Recovery Since 2003
The economy of Hong Kong revived since the outbreak of SARS in 2003 with the aids of government policies. A over 200% increase in price index of Golden Lion Garden is also observed from May 2003 to May 2008.
Sudden Drop in 2008
After a period of recovery, the housing price has declined again due to global financial crisis and global financial tsunami in year of 2007 and 2008. A significant 20% dop was observed in over Hong Kong housing market, but only a slight 6% drop was observed in the price index of Golden Lion Garden from June 2008 to December 2008. It has again proven the volatility of property price in Golden Lion Garden.
From 2008 onwards
From the last 14 years until now, the uprising trend remains steady, albeit a little of noise is observed. The noises might be caused by the Stamp Duties introduction in 2012 and the increase in Special Stamp Duty Rate in 2016. The increasing of the property price index is expected to be cooled down because of the increased housing supply target set by Transport and Housing Bureau. As expected, price index of Golden Lion Garden continues to run behind a growth housing market in this period, and will continue in future.