November 4, 2019

Price Index

The graph below shows the price indices generated based on the transaction records of Pierhead Garden. Reference has been taken from RVD according to class and selected popular development (SPD).


Property Price Trend of Pierhead Garden

The performance of the overall housing market and the price indices are on a rising trend across these years and indicate the prosperity of the housing market in Hong Kong in general. However, some notable observations are found in the indices such as the occurrences of peaks and troughs. They will be explained in the following subsections.

(i) Peak in 1997

In the 1990s, Hong Kong’s economy was in a boom. The introduction of the “Hong Kong Airport Core Programme” in 1991 has stimulated the local economy with the construction of the Hong Kong International Airport in Chek Lap Kok and several large-scale infrastructure projects in Hong Kong such as Tsing Ma Bridge. Besides, the local property market was active at that time due to the low-interest rate and unemployment rate. The nominal interest rate and the unemployment rate were kept at below 6% and around 1-3% respectively (CEIC, 2019). 

On the other hand, the annual government land supply has been limited to not more than 50 hectares as stipulated in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. With the above-combined effects, the housing supply could not accommodate with the strong incentives from investors purchasing flats. The housing price level is hence pushed up to a peak in 1997.

 

(ii) A gradual decline from 1998 to 2003

Due to the outbreak of the Asian Economic Crisis in 1997, the economy had been greatly affected and led to the loss of confidence and demand in the housing market locally for the following years. Moreover, the new housing policy implemented by the Housing Bureau was also attributable to the gradual decline. The Chief Executive, Tung Chee Hwa pledged that the overall housing supply would be maintained at least 85,000 flats per year, in order to solve the housing problem in Hong Kong. Although the supply of flats had increased, the demand for housing was reduced due to the worsening local economy. Therefore, the property prices fell from 1998 onwards. 

Subsequently, the “US Dot-com Bubble Crisis” in 2000 and the outbreak of SARS in 2003 had further worsened the local economy as well as the housing market. As a result, people had a low incentive in purchasing flats and a gloomy expectation to the market. The property prices were further gone down to the trough in 2003.

 

(iii) Small peak followed by a sudden drop in 2008

From 2003 onwards, the government had attempted several ways to boost the local economy from the outbreak of SARS and thus Hong Kong was in a recovery stage from 2003 to 2008. The significant policies such as the signing of CEPA agreement between Mainland and Hong Kong and the Individual Visit Scheme had brought immediate impacts and stimulated the local economy. For the residential property market, the removal of the security of tenure provisions for domestic tenancies and expansion of the Mortgage Insurance Programme had encouraged people to invest and purchase flats. Therefore, the combined effects regained people’s confidence in the housing market and accounted for the steady rise in housing prices from 2004 to 2007. Although there was a peak in 2007, the property price had experienced a sudden drastic drop in 2008 due to the outbreak of the global financial crisis. The global economy including Hong Kong was adversely affected by the large-scale bankruptcies of financial institutions, banks and government. Hence, investors become insecure and less confident in the property market. The market suffered another setback after 2003.

 

(iv) Gradual rise from 2009 onwards

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the local economy has recovered rapidly and showed a general increasing trend from 2009 onwards until now. Since the negative impacts of the global financial crisis brought to the property prices were only in the short-term, the active investments from local, Mainland China and foreign countries, and high demand for homeownership had offset the negative impacts brought in 2008. The property prices then continued to rise substantially. However, minor fluctuations within the increasing trend had been observed in the years 2010-2011, 2012-2014, 2014-2016. They could be explained by government policies for cooling down the heated housing market. For instance, the implementation of Special Stamp Duty (SSD) in 2010, Buyer’s Stamp Duty (BSD) in 2012, and the doubling of Ad Valorem Stamp Duty in 2013. This reflected that the impacts of the government policies were also in the short-term and could not effectively combat the increasing property price level. As a consequence, the property price fluctuated in an increasing trend from 2009 onwards.

 

(v) Our expectations

Looking into the future, it is expected that the price index of Pierhead Garden will continue to rise with the overall private residential properties in Hong Kong. The launch of government policies in cooling down property prices will only bring temporary effects to the general property market. The demand for housing will not be hugely affected unless there is a significant change in the economy. As for the supply side, the scarce and limited land supply in Hong Kong will also unable to affect property prices in the foreseeable future.


Price Indices Average Price Indices (RVD)Price Indices of SPD (RVD)
1993Jan100100100
1993Feb130.0756101.59901599016100
1993Mar126.612103.19803198032100.67415730337
1993Apr128.2854105.0430504305101.68539325843
1993May125.3186108.9790897909105.16853932584
1993Jun131.3777115.62115621156108.08988764045
1993Jul132.3921120.54120541205113.37078651685
1993Aug131.2685120.41820418204115.39325842697
1993Sep131.1848118.32718327183114.26966292135
1993Oct129.426116.11316113161112.80898876404
1993Nov130.69119.68019680197113.48314606742
1993Dec129.8157123.24723247232114.04494382022
1994Jan132.8116133.57933579336121.01123595506
1994Feb137.8223138.86838868389126.40449438202
1994Mar136.3846151.16851168512136.62921348315
1994Apr148.7761144.77244772448144.94382022472
1994May154.1962142.43542435424141.12359550562
1994Jun146.8508143.54243542435141.91011235955
1994Jul152.1344138.9913899139137.86516853933
1994Aug151.1675144.40344403444136.62921348315
1994Sep146.4952142.18942189422136.85393258427
1994Oct151.581143.54243542435137.86516853933
1994Nov150.345140.34440344403136.96629213483
1994Dec147.407133.94833948339132.3595505618
1995Jan144.3003135.17835178352123.70786516854
1995Feb145.2183138.25338253383124.04494382022
1995Mar146.4212138.86838868389127.30337078652
1995Apr146.7664136.77736777368127.97752808989
1995May147.784134.56334563346125.73033707865
1995Jun143.5702130.38130381304122.69662921348
1995Jul142.773129.15129151292119.66292134831
1995Aug140.9845125.9532595326116.96629213483
1995Sep142.0879122.50922509225113.59550561798
1995Oct132.3975121.89421894219112.24719101124
1995Nov137.6873125.46125461255113.93258426966
1995Dec139.8808126.32226322263114.94382022472
1996Jan135.8303128.78228782288114.04494382022
1996Feb137.7079133.57933579336117.6404494382
1996Mar142.6847140.83640836408120.22471910112
1996Apr144.5334138.25338253383124.60674157303
1996May148.729139.60639606396126.40449438202
1996Jun149.6069141.20541205412128.87640449438
1996Jul149.1236140.22140221402128.65168539326
1996Aug153.7698145.75645756458128.76404494382
1996Sep155.1427144.77244772448131.12359550562
1996Oct158.5774151.66051660517134.60674157303
1996Nov159.1603157.68757687577139.43820224719
1996Dec168.7766166.29766297663144.94382022472
1997Jan174.4433176.62976629766153.37078651685
1997Feb182.1601190.15990159902161.91011235955
1997Mar195.7597199.75399753998177.07865168539
1997Apr203.894194.09594095941197.07865168539
1997May200.9972213.65313653137192.47191011236
1997Jun207.1736210.33210332103198.76404494382
1997Jul207.0232205.0430504305199.32584269663
1997Aug201.4624209.71709717097195.84269662921
1997Sep203.1305207.9950799508197.6404494382
1997Oct202.7564211.68511685117201.4606741573
1997Nov196.693193.11193111931186.29213483146
1997Dec186.4074188.68388683887174.83146067416
1998Jan178.061173.43173431734158.65168539326
1998Feb172.3221165.55965559656143.59550561798
1998Mar172.8356169.61869618696151.34831460674
1998Apr170.3502164.08364083641145.2808988764
1998May167.9373155.22755227552139.55056179775
1998Jun154.4509137.39237392374118.65168539326
1998Jul144.5785130.25830258303114.7191011236
1998Aug140.1878128.29028290283111.79775280899
1998Sep142.0266119.06519065191105.2808988764
1998Oct134.3835116.974169741799.775280898876
1998Nov140.8105123.49323493235107.52808988764
1998Dec146.5191129.15129151292113.59550561798
1999Jan144.7396127.79827798278114.38202247191
1999Feb146.187125.09225092251113.03370786517
1999Mar151.6521125.70725707257113.14606741573
1999Apr147.2935125.21525215252114.49438202247
1999May147.5815126.81426814268116.85393258427
1999Jun142.6083124.84624846248115.95505617978
1999Jul144.5392124.72324723247115.73033707865
1999Aug140.3605124.60024600246113.8202247191
1999Sep137.0924119.31119311193111.23595505618
1999Oct134.6246117.71217712177108.31460674157
1999Nov129.8694116.23616236162105.84269662921
1999Dec138.8758117.83517835178105.73033707865
2000Jan135.2293119.92619926199107.41573033708
2000Feb136.5849120.54120541205107.97752808989
2000Mar133.1685117.83517835178107.52808988764
2000Apr127.256115.37515375154105.05617977528
2000May128.3791110.5781057810699.662921348315
2000Jun133.8997105.2890528905392.696629213483
2000Jul126.1372106.027060270693.483146067416
2000Aug127.7333107.1340713407194.494382022472
2000Sep128.5913108.2410824108295.61797752809
2000Oct129.9668106.2730627306396.629213483146
2000Nov115.2377103.4440344403493.258426966292
2000Dec115.4698100.3690036900489.550561797753
2001Jan122.053399.01599015990288.876404494382
2001Feb117.50798.4009840098488.314606741573
2001Mar118.6406101.2300123001289.887640449438
2001Apr110.2077100.1230012300188.988764044944
2001May117.485999.01599015990288.202247191011
2001Jun115.657310087.865168539326
2001Jul113.805899.01599015990286.629213483146
2001Aug109.596197.29397293972985.955056179775
2001Sep107.375495.32595325953383.370786516854
2001Oct100.46491.51291512915181.011235955056
2001Nov98.299591.02091020910280
2001Dec94.890191.14391143911480.674157303371
2002Jan95.17691.63591635916481.123595505618
2002Feb100.600290.65190651906580.674157303371
2002Mar101.743990.52890528905381.460674157303
2002Apr104.577589.42189421894280.449438202247
2002May101.592190.65190651906579.775280898876
2002Jun102.719289.2988929889379.775280898876
2002Jul102.06187.82287822878278.426966292135
2002Aug105.113283.76383763837676.067415730337
2002Sep102.582783.02583025830373.033707865169
2002Oct94.327279.58179581795871.348314606742
2002Nov100.664379.82779827798370.224719101124
2002Dec88.509179.82779827798369.662921348315
2003Jan89.046777.98277982779868.539325842697
2003Feb91.860578.47478474784767.865168539326
2003Mar82.790974.53874538745465.842696629213
2003Apr85.371373.55473554735562.359550561798
2003May81.487472.93972939729461.685393258427
2003Jun69.862172.81672816728260.786516853933
2003Jul80.599871.70971709717160.449438202247
2003Aug73.154471.95571955719661.460674157303
2003Sep72.604374.04674046740563.370786516854
2003Oct79.183376.87576875768866.067415730337
2003Nov80.010978.22878228782369.213483146067
2003Dec83.265579.21279212792170.112359550562
2004Jan92.768484.62484624846272.696629213483
2004Feb93.902789.05289052890576.629213483146
2004Mar106.01994.83394833948381.23595505618
2004Apr104.132997.41697416974283.595505617978
2004May103.683593.97293972939783.370786516854
2004Jun97.584890.8979089790981.123595505618
2004Jul101.457791.02091020910280.674157303371
2004Aug101.804593.97293972939781.573033707865
2004Sep102.294999.01599015990282.584269662921
2004Oct99.1193102.3370233702385.280898876405
2004Nov109.6946100.3690036900486.179775280899
2004Dec103.1786101.5990159901687.640449438202
2005Jan107.7863103.9360393603989.550561797753
2005Feb109.1441109.96309963191.910112359551
2005Mar105.7032115.6211562115694.606741573034
2005Apr112.7126116.2361623616298.426966292135
2005May115.4149116.85116851169100.11235955056
2005Jun119.1901112.9151291512999.101123595506
2005Jul119.1956113.4071340713499.325842696629
2005Aug121.2524115.4981549815598.426966292135
2005Sep122.7059114.76014760148100.22471910112
2005Oct118.3865111.31611316113100
2005Nov112.4428107.6260762607695.168539325843
2005Dec113.7558110.0861008610193.707865168539
2006Jan115.34111.5621156211693.483146067416
2006Feb108.7615111.8081180811894.831460674157
2006Mar114.0394112.9151291512995.730337078652
2006Apr115.2756114.2681426814395.168539325843
2006May114.0952114.5141451414595.056179775281
2006Jun116.5242112.4231242312492.808988764045
2006Jul120.0754112.1771217712293.707865168539
2006Aug114.785112.5461254612591.910112359551
2006Sep118.4246112.9151291512992.134831460674
2006Oct108.4252112.5461254612590.561797752809
2006Nov102.1618112.0541205412190.337078651685
2006Dec112.2278112.6691266912789.550561797753
2007Jan112.3688114.8831488314989.662921348315
2007Feb115.9655116.3591635916490.112359550562
2007Mar116.456117.3431734317390.786516853933
2007Apr116.7578117.8351783517892.022471910112
2007May113.7678120.4182041820493.258426966292
2007Jun112.8439121.5252152521593.370786516854
2007Jul116.4397123.2472324723294.606741573034
2007Aug112.2893124.2312423124295.168539325843
2007Sep112.7971125.953259532695.730337078652
2007Oct116.1922129.028290282997.752808988764
2007Nov119.1448133.82533825338101.34831460674
2007Dec123.6349139.23739237392106.51685393258
2008Jan125.485145.38745387454112.13483146067
2008Feb127.7694148.09348093481116.40449438202
2008Mar134.6613148.83148831488117.52808988764
2008Apr135.9069146.9864698647115.39325842697
2008May136.9115149.20049200492115.95505617978
2008Jun134.2712149.32349323493116.06741573034
2008Jul125.6205148.33948339483113.70786516854
2008Aug133.4753146.0024600246112.3595505618
2008Sep126.5695145.14145141451110.11235955056
2008Oct126.3385136.16236162362103.8202247191
2008Nov115.8357124.969249692595.056179775281
2008Dec112.0916125.4612546125595.61797752809
2009Jan119.8766127.9212792127997.752808988764
2009Feb115.7716128.9052890528998.202247191011
2009Mar117.1647130.996309963199.550561797753
2009Apr125.9234135.30135301353102.69662921348
2009May116.735139.48339483395105.95505617978
2009Jun129.3928144.28044280443110.33707865169
2009Jul135.3809147.35547355474113.03370786517
2009Aug133.2952150.43050430504116.1797752809
2009Sep138.3422153.87453874539118.31460674157
2009Oct136.2099155.59655596556119.43820224719
2009Nov136.9854156.21156211562120
2009Dec136.1768159.16359163592120.56179775281
2010Jan141.5052163.09963099631123.03370786517
2010Feb141.4551165.55965559656125.61797752809
2010Mar145.2445168.75768757688127.97752808989
2010Apr150.4496172.57072570726131.23595505618
2010May150.5716171.83271832718130.44943820225
2010Jun146.5435173.18573185732131.01123595506
2010Jul151.4331177.9827798278134.60674157303
2010Aug151.8322182.16482164822138.5393258427
2010Sep156.185184.0098400984139.88764044944
2010Oct160.8137188.06888068881142.69662921348
2010Nov162.8788192.61992619926146.29213483146
2010Dec160.1961190.77490774908146.06741573034
2011Jan163.7107198.89298892989152.47191011236
2011Feb166.3029207.0110701107158.42696629213
2011Mar164.3676210.45510455105162.47191011236
2011Apr177.5653214.63714637146164.15730337079
2011May178.1399218.20418204182167.07865168539
2011Jun173.5309220.78720787208168.42696629213
2011Jul163.7608218.08118081181165.39325842697
2011Aug175.5269216.9741697417165.95505617978
2011Sep176.5867218.57318573186165.95505617978
2011Oct150.2587214.51414514145163.93258426966
2011Nov185.9937214.51414514145161.57303370787
2011Dec164.9332212.66912669127159.88764044944
2012Jan166.2116211.43911439114159.43820224719
2012Feb174.7077215.12915129151163.03370786517
2012Mar181.1983224.60024600246170.11235955056
2012Apr185.6843232.59532595326174.83146067416
2012May184.9349237.26937269373177.86516853933
2012Jun182.3516239.36039360394179.66292134831
2012Jul184.6367239.85239852399181.34831460674
2012Aug189.7802245.51045510455186.62921348315
2012Sep199.0996253.50553505535196.62921348315
2012Oct196.8662259.90159901599202.92134831461
2012Nov194.7697263.09963099631205.61797752809
2012Dec202.4489265.68265682657208.08988764045
2013Jan201.4212271.34071340713213.59550561798
2013Feb202.6682280.56580565806220.44943820225
2013Mar204.9634280.56580565806220
2013Apr210.6055279.70479704797212.69662921348
2013May203.5132281.42681426814213.59550561798
2013Jun202.946284.87084870849217.41573033708
2013Jul208.532286.71586715867219.88764044944
2013Aug204.42815287.69987699877219.21348314607
2013Sep200.3243286.10086100861218.76404494382
2013Oct208.5219286.10086100861217.07865168539
2013Nov207.954285.60885608856215.50561797753
2013Dec206.086285.36285362854215.50561797753
2014Jan207.3184284.25584255843213.25842696629
2014Feb208.8065283.39483394834213.48314606742
2014Mar199.868282.41082410824213.25842696629
2014Apr204.3974284.50184501845215.05617977528
2014May206.5877287.57687576876218.5393258427
2014Jun206.7604291.0209102091221.68539325843
2014Jul209.4574298.76998769988229.32584269663
2014Aug212.1544304.79704797048234.94382022472
2014Sep214.8387311.31611316113240.44943820225
2014Oct216.9092315.9901599016245.39325842697
2014Nov220.4757320.29520295203246.51685393258
2014Dec221.4249325.46125461255251.01123595506
2015Jan227.2573332.9643296433258.31460674157
2015Feb234.2784341.82041820418262.58426966292
2015Mar235.9954341.82041820418263.93258426966
2015Apr237.7124349.07749077491267.41573033708
2015May223.5607350.55350553506269.55056179775
2015Jun240.8777353.62853628536273.93258426966
2015Jul250.5444356.70356703567275.84269662921
2015Aug230.0655358.05658056581277.86516853933
2015Sep235.0262358.54858548585275.2808988764
2015Oct230.56485354.61254612546269.32584269663
2015Nov226.1035342.68142681427260.67415730337
2015Dec224.6619334.31734317343253.25842696629
2016Jan221.9083327.18327183272248.87640449438
2016Feb211.9183321.52521525215242.24719101124
2016Mar217.9618317.83517835178242.02247191011
2016Apr229.2735319.68019680197243.14606741573
2016May204.5571323.24723247232245.61797752809
2016Jun216.2667323.61623616236247.75280898876
2016Jul223.5153329.88929889299252.24719101124
2016Aug231.1718337.14637146371260
2016Sep229.416347.84747847478266.96629213483
2016Oct235.1861357.56457564576274.94382022472
2016Nov234.9016360.63960639606278.42696629213
2016Dec239.6392361.37761377614280
2016Jan239.2056364.82164821648280.89887640449
2017Feb238.772370.11070110701284.26966292135
2017Mar238.1214376.9987699877290.78651685393
2017Apr248.0341386.9618696187300.67415730337
2017May241.8653391.26691266913303.59550561798
2017Jun249.2874395.44895448954308.5393258427
2017Jul247.83805397.0479704797308.5393258427
2017Aug249.628725397.66297662977309.10112359551
2017Sep246.3887397.66297662977309.43820224719
2017Oct251.4194402.70602706027311.79775280899
2017Nov256.9577406.51906519065315.16853932584
2017Dec256.8085411.80811808118320.44943820225
2018Jan259.7216418.32718327183324.15730337079
2018Feb262.0743426.19926199262331.01123595506
2018Mar257.9825434.31734317343336.29213483146
2018Apr257.8729442.68142681427343.48314606742
2018May259.783448.70848708487352.92134831461
2018Jun264.2601457.56457564576359.66292134831
2018Jul266.1273463.09963099631363.25842696629
2018Aug266.1643461.86961869619362.58426966292