PRICE INDEX
In order to analyse the trend of the Festival City Price Index (FCPI), the FCPI will be used to compare with the price index compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department (RVD) as shown in the chart above. D & E Class Private Domestic Price Index from the RVD is used for the comparison and it is adjusted such that its base year value is the same as that of the FCPI so as to create a common ground for the analysis.
According to the chart, both the FCPI and the price index from the RVD have been gently increasing throughout the decade, which means the property price of the majority of the medium-to-large residential units including those in Festival City has been increasing. This might be due to the increasing demand in the residential market where more and more active investors from Hong Kong, mainland China or even overseas feel optimistic in investing in the local real estate market while there has not been any significant increase in supply. However, despite the fact that the domestic price index trend has been increasing from 2010, there was a graduate decline since the middle of 2019 until now. It is believed that such graduate decline in the recent one and a half year is due to the social movement in the second half of 2019 and the global pandemic in 2020. The outbreak of the social movement created a lot of uncertain factors which stroke the confidence of the investors, while the pandemic in 2020 has further negatively influenced the economy and lifestyle in the whole world, making people feeling more gloomy on investing in the market. Though the global pandemic is still creating a lot of chaos around the world, it is believed that the situation may slowly be controlled in near future as there are more and more new treatments including vaccine has been invented, so it is expected that the local property market as well as the property price of Festival City will not further drop, and may even recover gradually.
Moreover, although the FCPI and the D & E Class Private Domestic Price Index have both been increasing in the recent decade and both of them have actually been sharing a similar pattern, it is obvious that the FCPI has a smaller growth compared to the overall market as shown in the above chart, implying that the Festival City is underperforming the overall market of similar properties in the recent decade.
Details of the price index data are shown in the table below.
Month | Price Index of Festival City | RVD D&E |
---|---|---|
2010 - Mar | 100 | 100 |
2010 - Apr | 91.6516 | 100.3159558 |
2010 - May | 94.0657 | 98.89415482 |
2010 - Jun | 93.7318 | 99.47340706 |
2010 - Jul | 95.0334 | 102.7382833 |
2010 - Aug | 101.1756 | 104.0547657 |
2010 - Sep | 101.1756 | 106.0031596 |
2010 - Oct | 101.1756 | 106.6877304 |
2010 - Nov | 93.424 | 107.8462349 |
2010 - Dec | 92.785 | 106.7403897 |
2011 - Jan | 93.3502 | 110.6898368 |
2011 - Feb | 93.8329 | 111.6903633 |
2011 - Mar | 93.8665 | 113.6387572 |
2011 - Apr | 97.0499 | 117.0089521 |
2011 - May | 95.7975 | 118.6413902 |
2011 - Jun | 97.6925 | 120.2738283 |
2011 - Jul | 99.0147 | 118.7467088 |
2011 - Aug | 102.6341 | 116.4823591 |
2011 - Sep | 103.0158 | 115.6924697 |
2011 - Oct | 103.8575 | 116.3243813 |
2011 - Nov | 98.334 | 114.7446024 |
2011 - Dec | 87.8779 | 114.3759874 |
2012 - Jan | 86.8858 | 111.5323855 |
2012 - Feb | 97.2091 | 113.4281201 |
2012 - Mar | 91.577 | 116.6929963 |
2012 - Apr | 90.0297 | 120.1685097 |
2012 - May | 90.2277 | 123.3280674 |
2012 - Jun | 92.9744 | 125.4870985 |
2012 - Jul | 94.1937 | 126.2769879 |
2012 - Aug | 91.6767 | 126.5929437 |
2012 - Sep | 99.2496 | 128.2780411 |
2012 - Oct | 98.8116 | 130.0157978 |
2012 - Nov | 103.0652 | 130.0684571 |
2012 - Dec | 98.6917 | 129.7525013 |
2013 - Jan | 98.8848 | 130.5423907 |
2013 - Feb | 104.7722 | 134.0179042 |
2013 - Mar | 105.7961 | 131.7008952 |
2013 - Apr | 99.965 | 132.1221696 |
2013 - May | 97.356 | 132.3328067 |
2013 - Jun | 100.7102 | 130.4370721 |
2013 - Jul | 99.4779 | 131.6482359 |
2013 - Aug | 100.7163 | 132.3328067 |
2013 - Sep | 101.7441 | 131.490258 |
2013 - Oct | 99.1448 | 131.1743023 |
2013 - Nov | 98.9125 | 130.4370721 |
2013 - Dec | 97.7347 | 130.4897314 |
2014 - Jan | 99.3786 | 129.8578199 |
2014 - Feb | 103.1723 | 128.7519747 |
2014 - Mar | 98.061 | 128.5939968 |
2014 - Apr | 97.8361 | 129.4365456 |
2014 - May | 100.9252 | 130.1211164 |
2014 - Jun | 101.0174 | 131.8062138 |
2014 - Jul | 103.565 | 132.4381253 |
2014 - Aug | 101.4989 | 134.0179042 |
2014 - Sep | 104.5843 | 135.6503423 |
2014 - Oct | 106.7672 | 137.0194839 |
2014 - Nov | 106.9222 | 137.5987362 |
2014 - Dec | 108.7678 | 138.8098999 |
2015 - Jan | 109.699 | 140.600316 |
2015 - Feb | 111.1255 | 142.759347 |
2015 - Mar | 110.7051 | 143.0226435 |
2015 - Apr | 113.0257 | 144.3391259 |
2015 - May | 112.3787 | 144.9710374 |
2015 - Jun | 112.899 | 146.5508162 |
2015 - Jul | 118.0677 | 146.9194313 |
2015 - Aug | 116.8314 | 147.2880463 |
2015 - Sep | 112.7397 | 148.0779358 |
2015 - Oct | 114.8722 | 142.7066877 |
2015 - Nov | 110.5455 | 141.3375461 |
2015 - Dec | 110.3564 | 138.0726698 |
2016 - Jan | 110.3564 | 137.0721432 |
2016 - Feb | 107.9782 | 136.6508689 |
2016 - Mar | 104.0336 | 135.8609795 |
2016 - Apr | 108.4882 | 136.5982096 |
2016 - May | 107.6854 | 138.1253291 |
2016 - Jun | 107.3958 | 138.5466035 |
2016 - Jul | 110.6404 | 139.5471301 |
2016 - Aug | 114.1157 | 140.0210637 |
2016 - Sep | 114.51 | 144.181148 |
2016 - Oct | 119.0325 | 146.4981569 |
2016 - Nov | 119.0444 | 147.5513428 |
2016 - Dec | 119.619 | 147.4460242 |
2017 - Jan | 118.3449 | 148.1832543 |
2017 - Feb | 122.6569 | 149.6050553 |
2017 - Mar | 124.3204 | 150.8688784 |
2017 - Apr | 126.0883 | 152.764613 |
2017 - May | 131.0179 | 155.2395998 |
2017 - Jun | 129.0206 | 156.5034229 |
2017 - Jul | 129.0206 | 156.8193786 |
2017 - Aug | 131.9334 | 157.9778831 |
2017 - Sep | 131.5481 | 158.5571353 |
2017 - Oct | 131.4237 | 159.1890469 |
2017 - Nov | 132.7853 | 161.8746709 |
2017 - Dec | 137.2018 | 164.6129542 |
2018 - Jan | 137.2512 | 166.7719853 |
2018 - Feb | 139.3161 | 167.2985782 |
2018 - Mar | 146.1958 | 167.7198526 |
2018 - Apr | 144.3933 | 169.1943128 |
2018 - May | 147.4881 | 172.0379147 |
2018 - Jun | 152.0367 | 174.7235387 |
2018 - Jul | 146.5303 | 175.3027909 |
2018 - Aug | 158.0776 | 174.6708794 |
2018 - Sep | 156.6748 | 170.8267509 |
2018 - Oct | 144.8927 | 166.6666667 |
2018 - Nov | 138.2439 | 163.2438125 |
2018 - Dec | 136.5467 | 162.8751975 |
2019 - Jan | 139.106 | 164.7182728 |
2019 - Feb | 142.8542 | 166.6140074 |
2019 - Mar | 143.9732 | 169.7209057 |
2019 - Apr | 149.4771 | 174.7235387 |
2019 - May | 147.0528 | 177.1458662 |
2019 - Jun | 153.4491 | 174.8815166 |
2019 - Jul | 151.8959 | 175.4081095 |
2019 - Aug | 149.1132 | 173.5650342 |
2019 - Sep | 143.7745 | 170.2474987 |
2019 - Oct | 144.7532 | 168.2464455 |
2019 - Nov | 144.0847 | 169.40495 |
2019 - Dec | 145.3134 | 164.92891 |
2020 - Jan | 142.0834 | 167.2459189 |
2020 - Feb | 144.2593 | 164.8235914 |
2020 - Mar | 141.7498 | 164.4549763 |
2020 - Apr | 139.9414 | 163.4017904 |
2020 - May | 145.4619 | 167.1406003 |
2020 - Jun | 142.7122 | 170.7740916 |
2020 - Jul | 144.7585 | 168.7730384 |
2020 - Aug | 143.1894 | 168.0884676 |
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